Mid-Year Market Outlook: Summer Strength Amid Uncertainty

Summertime typically brings a more relaxed mentality—not just for people, but often for the financial markets as well. However, that may not be the case this year. With the recent passage of the “Big Beautiful Bill” and ongoing daily tariff discussions, there’s plenty keeping investors on their toes. Despite these headlines, the markets appear to be taking the news in stride and continue to demonstrate strength.

While many are anticipating the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates, current economic data hasn’t yet provided strong support for that move. Still, the markets remain resilient.

Looking at historical trends:

• When the S&P 500 is up between 5–10% at the midpoint of the year (as it is in 2025), the index has gone on to finish higher 13 out of 15 times.
• When both May and June—typically weaker months—post gains (as they did this year), the S&P 500 has ended the year higher in 15 out of 16 instances.

We believe this trend is likely to continue in 2025.

As part of our ongoing strategy discussions with clients, we are exploring the integration of blockchain technology and cryptocurrency into portfolios. Currently, these emerging asset classes make up approximately 3% of U.S. household wealth, and that number appears poised to grow—especially with the potential for a dedicated crypto exchange and more relaxed regulatory oversight.

During your next strategy session, we’ll discuss whether this is an area of interest for you and, if so, how we can thoughtfully incorporate these assets into your broader financial plan. We hope you have a wonderful summer and enjoy time with your loved ones.